90% of all mortgages are low ratio mortgages in Vancouver. This means they were exempt from the previous stress test. This is per the Bank of Canada’s most recent financial stability review.

Highlights of their report here:

With the mortgage stress test estimated to reduce borrowing power by 20% in the new year, I am currently witnessing a lot of activity in the market as buyers scramble to get in before 2018. Many mortgage brokers are confirming the surge in volume.



90% of Vancouver Real Estate Buyers Dodged the Last Stress Test But Won’t This Time Around #buy #RealEstate in #Canada

And as for you, be fruitful and multiply; bring forth abundantly in the earth and multiply in it. – Genesis 9:7

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  • That's a shockingly high portion being low ratio. Where is all the down payment money coming from?

  • @Steve Saretsky:
    So about what date do you figure that all these slumlords are gonna' have their Real Estate $$$'s knocked-back ton normalcy so that working folks can go buy?

  • Please do a video on the GTA market in ontario please.

  • I don't know anything about Vancouver. But according to zolo it looks pretty healthy with 1.2M average price for all properties.
    Toronto is only 820k avg. So a big difference.

  • I like this comment "Inventory is a funny thing, it tends to magically appear as soon as prices start falling" so true…lol

  • Would love to grab a coffee sometime. I have some of my own thoughts but would be really interested in hearing more of yours.

  • Thanks again Steve. As you pointed out previously, the trillions of fast-money dollars sloshing around the planet are driving up prices in a lot of places. When there's another major drop on Wall Street, many houses will be sold to cover those losses. Regardless of the true complexity of the situation, many uneducated people in BC will blame rich Chinese, and there could be race riots. Vancouverites are stupid enough to riot over the perpetual losses of the Canucks ( they finally win the Stanley cup in 2168), so draw your own conclusions. Strauss and Howe's "The Fourth Turning" was accurate 20 years ago, and it seems to be accurate now. Some supposed economic experts claim we are repeating the 1930's and that humans are currently doing the same things that were done in 1937. If Strauss and Howe are correct about a global war every 80 years, then this housing bubble will be a forgotten problem in 2 years. I also like Steve Keen's work. He correctly slags Neo-classical economics. This pseudo-intellectual religion will be blamed for most of the problems of the 20th and 21st centuries. Unfortunately, fractional banking is actually an elaborate Ponzy scheme. These are not my ideas, I'm just passing along food for thought. The $20 bill in my pocket is a debt instrument, and fiat currency, not money. It is not a proper store of wealth (due to inflation, or the push of a central bank computer key), and cannot be money. My store of wealth happens to be my solar-powered 'Mad Max Mobile", a nasty piece of work with huge tires, and many sharp steel spikes welded to it. It has three .50 cal machine guns, and a flame thrower at the back. It started out life as a Tesla Model S. It's beneath my dignity to hunt the wastelands, fighting mutants over drops of gasoline. Solar power is the way of the (dystopic) future, despite all the damn rain.

  • I feel the leading indicator of a price crash will likely be a spike in inventory. Right no inventories are low, so there's very little panic in the market. Inventories will spike and prices will likely move sideways for perhaps a few weeks before panic selling sets in. As you mentioned borrowers are going to be feeling the pain from the stress tests, so we'll see how that translates into market sentiment. I'd give fairly good odds our housing bubble will survive the stress test, but global interest rate spikes within the next decade will almost certainly crash it.

  • we gotta sink that capitalist china's money ship

  • The financial system must be protected, by all means necessary. Who cares about the lives of millions of Canadians? Protect the institutions that helped create the problems.

    Of course, I don’t buy into any of their crap!

    Thanks, Steve, for another insightful video.

  • Watching your views # increase every video. Good job man ? love the insight you provide and the thoughts and data behind it

  • Doesn't the new OFSI rules put further restrictions on how much loan to value you can take from your home too?

  • On a separate note, courts recently announced in Ontario, that TREB cannot block the uploading of sales history and other property history data to public real estate sites. TREB lost their appeal and so, it looks like sales price history data for listings will (soon?) be available for Toronto, on different RE websites.

  • The problem is the way inflation is measured. The government is more concerned by gasoline going up by 10 cents a year than housing going up by $250K a year.

  • Good video. Topic is great. Got distracted by the background setting. Keep it simple . Remove the calendar. Put only one decorative item in the back ground .

  • Bubbley bubble…& deflationary recession….

  • So get rid of the mortgage based GDP! Based on labor and physical product gain GDP after tax, what is the net monetary transactions? Is it positive as too mortgage loans? The system works like surviving only by drinking your own pee. How many cycles until there’s no more per?

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